DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141955
SWODY1
SPC AC 141953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...

...20Z UPDATE...
LIMITED CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK. ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 50-100 MILES NEAREST THE
BORDER...WITH INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE
ORGANIZATION INTO THIS EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE RIVER VICINITY. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
HAZARD...PRIMARILY THROUGH SUNSET.

..GUYER.. 05/14/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012/

...TX...
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WEST TX TODAY. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST TX IS DESTABILIZING AS CLEARING SKIES RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES TO PROMOTE SUPERCELL/BOW STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY ALSO AID IN THE
RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO FROM THE MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR UPSCALE
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING INTO A LARGER BOW ECHO WITH AN ENHANCED
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

...VA/CAROLINAS/GA...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TODAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
ONGOING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL VA SOUTHWARD INTO SC.
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS AND MIGHT RESULT IN A FEW STRONG CELLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A CORRIDOR EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO POSE SOME RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

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