DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141252
SWODY1
SPC AC 141250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT FOR W/SW TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...W/SW TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN/CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SEWD TO
THE BIG BEND BY TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT
IS SPREADING SEWD OVER SRN NM AS OF 12Z PER SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY.
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...AN OVERNIGHT MCS IS WEAKENING NEAR DRT...WHILE
THE REMNANT MCV SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY WHILE MOVING OVER S TX.
A BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS IS ONGOING OVER PECOS/TERRELL COUNTIES TX
IN A ZONE OF WAA ABOVE THE COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE DRT MCS.

THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD BREAKS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ACROSS SW
TX...BETWEEN THE WAA STORMS AND THE BAND OF ASCENT/CONVECTION ACROSS
SRN NM. HERE...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE BAND OF ASCENT SHIFTS FROM NM TO W/SW TX AND
ENCOUNTERS THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH ONLY WEAK
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE ISOLATED
STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND
OF ASCENT. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER
SEWD MOVING MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE BIG
BEND AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE MEXICO. LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THOUGH THE SEVERE STORM RISK SHOULD
DIMINISH BY ABOUT 06Z...SOME REMNANTS OF THE BIG BEND STORMS FROM
THIS EVENING COULD SPREAD AS FAR AS S TX FROM 06-12Z.

...SE GA TO S CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...
A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL EJECT NEWD FROM
AL/TN/KY ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE EMBEDDED WAVES...WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IS PRESENT...ESPECIALLY FROM NC INTO VA...WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS GA/SC. THE CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A BELT OF MODESTLY
ENHANCED LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 05/14/2012

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