Wednesday, May 9, 2012

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091648
SWODY2
SPC AC 091647

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE NERN
U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NRN ROCKIES. CUTOFF LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO SWRN TX. COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE LEAD NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH FL AND
INTO DEEP S TX WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY.

...S TX...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS EARLY THURSDAY MAINLY WITHIN ZONE
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF STALLED FRONT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
OF STORMS EXPECTED FROM SWRN INTO SCNTRL TX. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AT
LEAST PARTIALLY DIMINISH IN S TX WARM SECTOR AS MIXING COMMENCES
WITH DIABATIC HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. A 50+
KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND
MOVE EAST INTO S TX. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED STATIONARY FRONT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND
AS THEY DEVELOP EWD SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE 0-2 KM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SELY STORM RELATIVE INFLOW.

..DIAL.. 05/09/2012

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