DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150551
SWODY2
SPC AC 150550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM ONTARIO/GREAT
LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND ACROSS WRN/NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THU.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
THE OH VALLEY. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD IN THE
SOUTHEAST. IN THE WEST...COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA WILL
DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY THU MORNING. A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A
LLJ STRENGTHENING IN THE GREAT PLAINS WED NIGHT.

...NORTHEAST...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL LAG THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...AROUND 40 KT AT 500 MB SHOULD BE PRESENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING OF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH
MLCAPE LIKELY REACHING 500-1000 J/KG AND WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SWLYS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KT...SETUP SHOULD YIELD
A FEW CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS PRIMARILY PRODUCING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL AREAS WITH GRADUAL APPROACH OF A BROAD BUT WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...BUT
POCKETS OF STRONGER INSOLATION/HEATING COUPLED WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MODEST BUOYANCY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE GREAT PLAINS LLJ...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD FORM TOWARDS 12Z/THU IN PARTS OF
THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN WITHIN A WAA REGIME. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ELEVATED PARCELS WOULD HAVE ONLY MODEST SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS.. 05/15/2012

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