DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151731
SWODY2
SPC AC 151730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THIS
PERIOD...WHILE AN EMBEDDED/STRONGER SHORT-WAVE PORTION OF THE TROUGH
ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF ERN CANADA.

IN THE WEST...A TROUGH/LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NERN PACIFIC IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD WITH TIME...AFFECTING THE PAC NW --
PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

IN BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS...LARGE-SCALE MEAN RIDGING IS FORECAST
OVER THE ROCKIES -- THOUGH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE BROADER-SCALE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
SHORT-WAVE SYSTEM. A WEAKER FRONT/TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO SHIFT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

IN THE WEST...BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WITH A LEE TROUGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH
TIME. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO CROSS THE PAC NW AS THE
STRONGER NERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION.

...THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...
MODEST DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SUPPORT A INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
INCREASE...GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES/LINE
SEGMENTS...AND -- AIDED BY MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT
SPREADING ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH TIME -- SHOULD BECOME CAPABLE
OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS -- WARRANTING AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY
STABILIZES AND THE FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES OFF THE COAST.

...SERN U.S. COAST...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND INVOF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD FUEL THE
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH MODEST SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IN MOST AREAS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL...BEFORE DIURNALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING.

..GOSS.. 05/15/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.