DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141730
SWODY2
SPC AC 141729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
WI/EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY QUIET MID-MAY SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS/ADJACENT CANADA. THIS WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED BUT WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM...WITH THE STRONGEST WESTERLIES CONFINED TO CANADA AND THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.

...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY...AND AT PEAK HEATING IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ALONG A
GENERAL NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AXIS FROM THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF
MI TO SOUTHERN WI/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA. BASED ON CURRENT/EXPECTED
TRAJECTORIES...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER
50S F. EVEN SO...AMPLE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE/POTENTIALLY EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI AND EASTERN
IA/FAR NORTHERN IL. SUFFICIENT COLLOCATION OF VERTICAL
SHEAR/INSTABILITY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR
NEAR/EAST OF THE MS RIVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUSTAINED MULTICELLS
WHERE TSTMS OCCUR. SEVERE HAIL/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH A MODEST MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT/DECOUPLING BOUNDARY
LAYER LIKELY LEADING TO A WANING INTENSITY BY MID/LATE EVENING.

...MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...
RELATIVELY NEBULOUS/MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE OF TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF STRONGER INSOLATION/HEATING
COUPLED WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR
MLCAPE TO REACH 1000-2000 J/KG IN MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST GA. SOME SUSTAINED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...FAR SOUTH TX...
THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MCS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VICINITY PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A LINGERING SEVERE THREAT INTO TUESDAY...OR MORE SO
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX.
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

..GUYER.. 05/14/2012

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