ACUS48 KWNS 100855
SWOD48
SPC AC 100855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LOW NOW OVER NWRN MEX SHOULD MOVE ACROSS TX DAYS
2-3...EVOLVING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. ON DAYS
4-5/13TH-15TH...PHASING OF SRN-STREAM TROUGH WITH AREA OF
GREAT-LAKES HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT INLAND MOVEMENT OF SFC
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW THAT WILL BE OVER NWRN GULF DAY-3. THIS WILL
INCREASE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS MS/AL/GA. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MODEST...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY
DEVELOP NEAR NEWD-MOVING WARM FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LCL...FOR SOME SUPERCELL/TORNADO
POTENTIAL. ATTM RISK APPEARS BELOW 30% CATEGORICAL CRITERIA.
CONSIDERABLE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD OCCURS
THEREAFTER...WITH MOST PROGGED PATTERNS YIELDING TOO MUCH
DISPLACEMENT OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STG WINDS ALOFT TO
SUPPORT WELL-ORGANIZED SVR EVENT.
..EDWARDS.. 05/10/2012
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