DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140842
SWOD48
SPC AC 140841

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON D4. 00Z ECMWF/CMC AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN DAMPENING THE IMPULSE AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE N-CNTRL
CONUS. THE 00Z GFS AND SOME 00Z GEFS MEMBERS HAVE BROKEN CONTINUITY
BY NOT DAMPENING THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL
CENTERED ON D6 IN THE N-CNTRL CONUS. BUT WITH RETURN FLOW FROM THE
WRN GULF NOT PROGGED TO COMMENCE UNTIL D4 AND REMAIN MODEST IN THE
COASTAL AREAS...SETUP SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS LOOKS
OVERDONE IN THIS REGARD COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. AS SUCH...SEVERE
PROBABILITIES APPEAR AOB 30 PERCENT.

..GRAMS.. 05/14/2012

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