DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150844
SWOD48
SPC AC 150843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE WRN GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN
CONUS AT 12Z/FRI. HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE CONSISTENCY EXISTS AMONG
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE TROUGH DAMPENING AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE CNTRL CONUS ON SAT-SUN. TSTM POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD INTO THE N-CNTRL CONUS.

RETURN FLOW IN THE WRN GULF WILL COMMENCE ON D3 AND SHOULD REMAIN
MODEST IN THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MOST OF
THE PLAINS...WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEAN APPEARING OVERDONE IN THIS
REGARD. THE ECMWF APPEARS REASONABLE WITH DEPICTING A MODERATE
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD YIELD SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL /PEAKING AROUND D5/. BUT GIVEN THE DAMPENING NATURE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE STILL AOB 30 PERCENT.

..GRAMS.. 05/15/2012

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