MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0725

ACUS11 KWNS 060252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060251
MNZ000-SDZ000-060415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN SD INTO SW AND CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252...253...

VALID 060251Z - 060415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
252...253...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RAPID REFRESH INDICATES THAT INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB JET TO AROUND 40 KT HAS OCCURRED
NEAR/NORTH OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY AREA. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHERE VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A
GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER
...WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR HAS GENERALLY CONFINED ACTIVITY TO
AREAS GENERALLY WELL NORTH OF A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.
POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT REMAINS UNCLEAR. BUT...STRONGER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD...ROUGHLY ALONG THE 700
MB BAROCLINIC ZONE DEFINING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER
CAPPING...COINCIDING WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING THE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH 05-06Z.

..KERR.. 05/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 45669662 45989532 45919383 45159295 44309296 43859411
43779547 43739656 44039758 44789712 45669662

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