MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0741

ACUS11 KWNS 070255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070255
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259...

VALID 070255Z - 070400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW 259 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. STRONG TSTMS SHOULD
PERSIST ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A NEW WW
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE LINE PRESENT ALONG A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND 40 S OJC TO 20 PNC AS OF 0230Z. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLYS TO BETWEEN 25-30 KT HAS BEEN NOTED IN
SGF/INX VWP DATA WHICH SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING TSTMS GIVEN A
PERSISTENT INFLUX OF A CONVECTIVELY UNDISTURBED AIR MASS OVER FAR
SERN KS AND ERN OK CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE
DEW POINTS. STILL...WITH ONLY MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL SWLYS PER THE
NEODESHA KS PROFILER AND ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLELING
THE FRONT...ALONG WITH WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS LINE
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. ALTHOUGH A LOCALIZED MICROBURST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT GIVEN A STRONGLY BUOYANT UPDRAFT...THIS THREAT APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A NEW WW ISSUANCE.

..GRAMS.. 05/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37059701 37849631 38619485 38679416 37989390 37309407
36709457 36609491 36519560 36649639 36859688 37059701

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