ACUS11 KWNS 100309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100309
TXZ000-100415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT WED MAY 09 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 100309Z - 100415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTH TX LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ONGOING ABOUT 50
MILES NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE 00Z SOUNDING IN BROWNSVILLE EARLIER THIS
EVENING SHOWED MUCAPE APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2.0
INCHES IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO PRECIP LOADING WITH AN POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO BUT THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY
TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SUPPORT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
SOUTH TX. FOR THIS REASON...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND WILL PROBABLY ONLY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO.
..BROYLES.. 05/10/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BRO...
LAT...LON 27039790 26899820 26709836 26479839 26289833 26169804
26139782 26209751 26299739 26639732 27019746 27039790
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