MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0783

ACUS11 KWNS 110437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110436
TXZ000-110600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX...LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 273...

VALID 110436Z - 110600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 273 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
ACROSS SOUTH TX. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY
ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
DECREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST AS A CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVES NEWD TOWARDS WHARTON AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI EXTENDING SSWWD TO WEST OF RIO
GRANDE CITY IN FAR SOUTH TX. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN
THE MID 70S AND MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
THIS ALONG WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TX WILL ALLOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW
LCL HEIGHTS AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A
CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THIS THREAT ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SEWD INTO EXTREME SOUTH TX AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.

..BROYLES.. 05/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON 27369906 27079940 26629929 26389895 26039776 25939725
26229709 26699726 27109727 27579706 27979674 28339636
28929533 29509592 29129675 28369759 27909796 27639850
27369906

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