MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0792

ACUS11 KWNS 120332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120331
LAZ000-TXZ000-120500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 274...

VALID 120331Z - 120500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 274 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 274 SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. THE
THREATS COULD PERSIST UNTIL WATCH EXPIRATION AT 07Z ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS CAN REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA IS LOCATED
ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND AHEAD OF A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR/RUC IMAGERY. THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ON
THE WRN SIDE OF THE WATCH. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP FROM HOUSTON SHOWS
40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 25 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS
AMOUNT OF FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL
MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE WRN PART OF THE WATCH FAVORED DUE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 05/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 28589505 29209427 29379375 29439336 29759333 29689387
29809392 29849378 30229367 30399371 30599371 30889355
31189352 31039431 31049462 31169482 31349492 30969555
30849581 30089578 30119595 29819582 29729599 29589602
29249587 28879569 28829542 28929527 28639510 28589505

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