MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0808

ACUS11 KWNS 141831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141830
NCZ000-SCZ000-141930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141830Z - 141930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD DMGG WIND RISK WILL MOVE EWD AS THE BROKEN TSTM LINE
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...RADAR/SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
WARM/DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 DEG F AHEAD OF IT. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN TURN HAVE STEEPENED CONSIDERABLY /7-8 DEG C PER
KM/ IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER -- BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD POCKETS
OF STRONG TO LOWER-END SEVERE WIND GUSTS. KCLX AND KCAE VAD SHOW
0-6 KM SHEAR RANGING FROM 25-35 KTS...SUPPORTIVE PRIMARILY OF
MULTICELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH OCCASIONAL TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE...AS THE STORM CONGLOMERATION PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST AT
25 KTS.

..SMITH/HART.. 05/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 32588054 35457870 35417715 34507734 32578008 32588054

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