ACUS11 KWNS 141856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141855
TXZ000-142130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141855Z - 142130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS HEATING OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY N OF THE BIG BEND AREA. STORMS DO NOT APPEAR SEVERE
AT THIS TIME...BUT POCKETS OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH COOLING
ALOFT WITH THE UPPER VORTICITY CENTER SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE...WITH SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING.
40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE LONG HODOGRAPHS WHICH WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY BOW WITH A WIND
THREAT.
..JEWELL/HART.. 05/14/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30240474 30810530 30780364 30920266 31310196 31790153
31760061 31379972 30549988 29600058 29270109 28940216
28890299 28990345 29390420 29720460 30240474
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