MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0824

ACUS11 KWNS 161627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161627
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-161830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN NY...VT...NERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 161627Z - 161830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...POSSIBLY IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT ONCE. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE FIRST IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN PA INTO WRN
NY...BUT INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOW WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE
40S F. FARTHER E...ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS WAS PERSISTING FROM SRN
QUEBEC INTO NRN AND CNTRL NY...ON THE EDGE OF THE ADVANCING UPPER
VORT. THE THIRD AREA WAS OVER SERN NY AND VT...NEAR THE SURFACE
THETA-E AXIS WHERE MUCAPE WAS APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG.

WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND LITTLE CIN...STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM BY
18-19Z. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE NEAR THE FRONT...BUT OTHER
STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER E IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS. WITH FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER FLOW AND INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT...SUPERCELLS
WILL BE LIKELY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.


A WIND THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...PERHAPS MORE WITH THE FRONTAL
ACTIVITY WHERE STORM MODE COULD BENEFIT FORM MERGED OUTFLOWS. THE
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST
2KM...BUT...WINDS WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN A
WEAK...BRIEF SPIN-UP.

..JEWELL/HART.. 05/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 41787725 42467691 43027599 44177481 45037402 45077239
44907202 44267222 43287253 42387333 41897365 41677450
41587499 41427608 41597687 41787725

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