MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0835

ACUS11 KWNS 190551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190551
SDZ000-NEZ000-190715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD...NRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 190551Z - 190715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A HAIL THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS ACROSS CNTRL SD AND NRN NEB
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
FROM NRN NEB NWD INTO NCNTRL SD. THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AN
AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KT EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. ALTHOUGH
THE AIRMASS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE STABLE...A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN
DRIVE A WEDGE DOWN THROUGH THE COOLER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..BROYLES.. 05/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 45599862 45829907 45879943 45769968 45539986 45210002
44490056 43880091 43270111 42380083 42040033 41980002
42389948 43289928 44039853 44799794 45599862

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