MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0894

ACUS11 KWNS 251908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251908
NYZ000-252045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251908Z - 252045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NY...FROM THE SRN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE
WEST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND INTO WRN NY ATTM.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV
ANOMALY THAT HAS PEELED OFF THE MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM NOW CROSSING
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER IN CANADA. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
MAKING EWD PROGRESS ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL NY HAS WARMED AND BECOME UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AOA 1000 J/KG ON THE NY/PA BORDER TO ABOUT
500 J/KG OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE BROKEN CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.
ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS NOW APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING BUT NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS PER WRF-HRRR. IT IS LIKELY THAT STRONGER ASCENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE REQUIRED TO AID IN THE INITIATION OF MORE
ROBUST/NUMEROUS STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.

DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
ALREADY STRENGTHENED PER BUF VWP WITH 30-35KT SWLY WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2KM. AMBIENT SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS IF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONT LATER TODAY. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WATCH.

..CARBIN.. 05/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 44357462 43847429 43397445 42797501 42267566 42077677
42157743 42547756 42987741 43347667 44007606 44427531
44507505 44357462

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