MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0993

ACUS11 KWNS 311103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311102
TXZ000-311230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL INTO SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 311102Z - 311230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY A
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING. A WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INITIATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...ASSOCIATED WITH GRAVITY WAVES
GENERATED BY A NOW WEAKENING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU... HAS SHOWN A SUBSTANTIVE RECENT INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. THIS MAY
BE AIDED BY MODEST SOUTHERLY INFLOW OF INCREASING MOIST AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
30-40 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE WAKE OF
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS...RECENTLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX...HAS ENHANCED ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE POTENTIAL
LONGEVITY OF THIS EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS REMAINS UNCLEAR... BUT
A DOWNBURST DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...ACCOMPANIED BY
SURFACE GUSTS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS... EAST/NORTHEAST OF
THE TEMPLE AND COLLEGE STATION AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF LUFKIN
BETWEEN NOW AND 12-14Z.

..KERR/MEAD.. 05/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31269709 31589706 31779653 31679557 31509511 31109460
30829444 30589597 30629629 31269709

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