MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0994

ACUS11 KWNS 311448
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311447
LAZ000-TXZ000-311545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311447Z - 311545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SE
TX AND SW LA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX IS LOCATED JUST
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
LINE MOVING SEWD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
SE TX AND SW LA. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES THAT MLCAPE IS IN THE 1500
TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WHICH WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...AN AXIS OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL
AND SOUTH TX WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ACROSS SE TX IN THE 25 TO 45
KT RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM
SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE
LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE
ESPECIALLY IF THE LINE CAN DEVELOP A PERSISTENT BOWING STRUCTURE.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 30079154 30569181 30809222 31279277 31309312 31269353
31059414 30799471 30629560 30379599 29979598 29649564
29479496 29659373 29579239 29609173 30079154

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.