MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0995

ACUS11 KWNS 311702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311702 COR
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-311800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...BOOTHEEL OF MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311702Z - 311800Z

CORRECTED FOR AREAL DESCRIPTION

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SERN AR AND NRN MS...WITH DMGG WINDS AND HAIL LIKELY AS
CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.

DISCUSSION...A LINGERING MCV FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NOTED S OF
LITTLE ROCK WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD...GRADUALLY INITIATING NEW
CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF STABILITY...THE MCV IS APPROACHING AN AREA
THAT REMAINS MOIST AND HAS BEEN DESTABILIZING AMIDST AMPLE SURFACE
HEATING. ADDITIONAL REINFORCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT OVER ERN AR CONTINUES EWD COINCIDENT WITH
THE MCV.

FARTHER S...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN AREA OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...WITHIN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR. THESE STORMS
MAY APPROACH THE EDGE OF WW327 SHORTLY...AND A NEW WW IS BEING
CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM. THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATES MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH STEEPING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS. DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT WITH
TIME.

..HURLBUT/WEISS.. 05/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 33109210 34749135 36159018 36378905 36098851 35308842
34278871 33568889 32078927 32029016 32139057 32679069
32999093 33059119 33109210

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