DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 152002
SWODY1
SPC AC 152000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL IA/NORTHERN
MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA...

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS
WESTERN SD BASED ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS/GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL
SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. SEE SEVERE TSTM
WATCH 395/SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

...IA/NORTHERN MO...
IN SPITE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
EXIST FOR A FEW RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS/BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT ACROSS IA NEAR A WARM FRONT AND AMID AN ENHANCED WIND FIELD
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A REMNANT MCV. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174
FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.

...SOUTH FL...
A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO SOUTH FL. SEE SEVERE
TSTM WATCH 396 AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173 FOR METEOROLOGICAL
DISCUSSION.

...ELSEWHERE...
LITTLE OR NO CHANGES IN OTHER AREAS...SEE PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW
AND/OR SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

..GUYER.. 06/15/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012/

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH THE BAND OF STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDING ACROSS MT/ID/WY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
FROM KS/CO NORTHWARD...WHERE ONLY WEAK CAPPING IS EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN CO/WY SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF
SD/NEB/KS DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN SD...AND WEAKENS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK HILLS REGION WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. A MIXTURE OF SUPERCELL/MULTICELL
STRUCTURES ARE MORE LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH INTO CO/KS WHERE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP IS POSSIBLE.

..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF TX WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM AND
WEST TX. FULL SUNSHINE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WILL
RESULT IN UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK WITH STORMS LIKELY TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

...EAST TX...
REMNANT MCVS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
OK/NORTH CENTRAL TX. THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY RESULT IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST TX ARE IN THE MID 70S WITH
HIGH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS WEAK AND AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. NEVERTHELESS...THOSE STORMS THAT FORM MAY POSE A
RISK FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
ANOTHER REMNANT MCV IS PRESENT OVER WESTERN IA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD
AHEAD OF THE MCV...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...FL PENINSULA...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA WHERE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT. SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
/ESPECIALLY THE WEST COAST/ WHERE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS IS SLOWLY
ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO REGION WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBS FOR
TODAY.

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