DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 051706
SWODY2
SPC AC 051704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CYCLONIC DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST
STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WITHIN WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN...A WEAKENING
EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS.

ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN ON WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER
DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
IMPULSE...HOWEVER...MODELS REMAIN SUGGESTIVE THAT AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME MAY EVOLVE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PERHAPS
AIDED BY THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE DEVELOPMENTS...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
STATES. THE FRONT WILL BE MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PLAINS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING ACROSS MOST
AREAS...EAST AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE EVOLVING PATTERN PROVIDES GREATEST CERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHERE
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS UNCLEAR. DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND NEAR THE WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. HOWEVER...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW
FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR...GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SUGGESTS THAT ANY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTENING SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW COINCIDING WITH INCREASING UPPER FORCING WILL YIELD MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT LIKELY WILL BE RATHER
MODEST IN STRENGTH...AT BEST...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS... AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING AND AFTER THE
02-03Z TIME FRAME COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM CONSOLIDATION AND THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...BEFORE
ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH WANING INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT.

..KERR.. 06/05/2012

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