Sunday, June 10, 2012

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101724
SWODY2
SPC AC 101723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OZARKS...ARKLATEX AND SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
WILL PROGRESS EWD MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY MIDDAY
WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCATED FROM SRN MO SWD
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND WWD INTO ERN OK.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD MO AND LITTLE ROCK AR AT 21Z
MONDAY SHOW MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2500 TO 4000 J/KG SUGGESTING
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT ABOVE 850 MB IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO PRODUCE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ROTATING
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BETTER ORGANIZED MULTICELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SHARPLY-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY. AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
ERN NM WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THIS...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER
WEST...THE MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SRN ROCKIES IN NCNTRL NM AND SRN CO. THE NAM SOLUTION BRINGS THIS
CONVECTION SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 06Z TUESDAY AT TUCUMCARI AND LUBBOCK SHOW
MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL UPON STORM INITIATION. IF STORM INITIATION IS DELAYED
UNTIL LATE EVENING ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX...THEN THE SEVERE
THREAT COULD BE ISOLATED OR SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

...GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM LOWER MI
SWWD INTO IL WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT GRAND RAPIDS MI AND AT CHICAGO SHOW
MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

..BROYLES.. 06/10/2012

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