DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131726
SWODY2
SPC AC 131724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN
GREAT LAKES INTO ERN NEB...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
AND INTO MANITOBA DURING THE D2 PERIOD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
FROM A PRIMARY SFC LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI AS SRN/WRN PORTIONS OF
THE COLD FRONT BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP AND EXTEND SWD FROM THE MANITOBA SFC LOW
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z FRI. A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN NEB...
TSTMS SHOULD BE ON-GOING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN
AT 12Z THU AIDED BY STG LOW-LEVEL WAA. DESPITE SOME QUESTION ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTN WITH MLCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/JG...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 45-50 KTS AND SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING. SVR PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS AS THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

...MID-MO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
THU AFTN/EVENING FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
DESPITE WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /20-25 KTS/...INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THU
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...TSTMS OVER WRN KS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..BUNTING.. 06/13/2012

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