DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 280548
SWODY2
SPC AC 280546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER OH VALLEY...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ESEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL IA EWD ACROSS NRN IL AND NRN
IND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
F. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
3500 TO 4500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK
ACROSS THE REGION...SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD
INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
IF STORMS CAN INITIATE IN SPITE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT...MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

...NRN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOCATED IN THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE MID MO
VALLEY EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AT
00Z/SAT SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
SUGGESTING ANY STORM THAT CAN PERSIST SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..BROYLES.. 06/28/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.