MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1027

ACUS11 KWNS 031738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031737
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-032000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN/ERN PA...NERN WV...NRN VA...MUCH OF
MD/DE...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NJ...SERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031737Z - 032000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A MARGINALLY SVR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACCOMPANYING A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ARCS FROM CNTRL/SRN PA INTO SERN NY OVER THE SRN
FRINGES OF THE EXPANSIVE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DECK SURROUNDING BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NERN STATES. THIS ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY -- I.E.
0-3-KM AGL LAPSE RATES ALREADY REACHING 8-9 C/KM OWING TO STRONG
INSOLATION. CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL BE STEERED ESEWD GIVEN
30-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL WNWLY FLOW OVER THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WILL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES
NEARING 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING MODEST DEEP SHEAR...AND
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES -- I.E. AROUND -20C AT 500 MB PER 12Z
RAOBS -- THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL
HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ONE
OR TWO LINE SEGMENTS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...STORM STRENGTH WILL GREATLY BE MITIGATED BY THE ABSENCE OF
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / STRONGER BUOYANCY. STORMS WILL DECREASE
IN NUMBER/INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
COMMENCES.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
RLX...

LAT...LON 40627985 40577663 41987395 40707374 39007474 38357689
38687907 39568035 40627985

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