MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1033

ACUS11 KWNS 032039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032038
TXZ000-032215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF FAR SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032038Z - 032215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SWRN TX. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
DISORGANIZED...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF /1/ LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE NEAR WHICH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS
EXIST...AND /2/ OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR
SWRN TX...IS SUPPORTING HIGH-BASED...TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
STORMS FROM NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SWD TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND PER
VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA. WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 600
AND 550 MB ATOP A DEEP LAYER OF NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...DCAPE VALUES OF 1400-1800 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SVR
WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WITH DOWNDRAFTS BEING
ENHANCED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES GIVEN SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AOA 40F. WHILE ONE OR TWO SMALL/WEAKLY
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY...WEAK DEEP
SHEAR WILL GREATLY MITIGATE STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT. WEAK NWLY/NLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ATOP MODEST SLY LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW PER MIDLAND-ODESSA VWP DATA...WOULD SUPPORT SWD/SSEWD-MOVING
STORMS...REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING
OWING TO BOUNDARY-LAYER NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON 31350376 31030293 30320270 29270282 28990340 29590450
30220481 31000438 31350376

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