ACUS11 KWNS 071659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071659
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-071830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT THU JUN 07 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA
PNHDL/SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA...N CNTRL/NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071659Z - 071830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT A WW WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z...IF NOT BEFORE.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAVE ALREADY
INITIATED OFF THE MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THIS PROBABLY HAS
BEEN AIDED BY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGHING LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL INCREASING
STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS BY
THE 18-20Z.
MODERATELY SHEARED DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW IS STILL SOUTHERLY...BUT
EXPECTED TO VEER WITH TIME WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF STORMS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AS MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES
IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...AS ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS EASTWARD...A FEW
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
..KERR/WEISS.. 06/07/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 40260544 41110594 41670623 42630622 43530564 43990524
44100457 43630394 42810364 41400378 40750386 40040438
40100507 40260544
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