MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1111

ACUS11 KWNS 101527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101527
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-101700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AL...FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101527Z - 101700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY
IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN THE
UPCOMING 1630Z OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL PROGS IN SUGGESTING
THAT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY
MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING EAST OF MOBILE BAY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
LINE...ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST INLAND OF
THE COAST...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...COUPLED WITH MODESTLY
LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH DEGREE OF
SATURATION IN LOWER LEVELS...ALONG WITH SIZABLE CAPE. AND INLAND
ADVECTION OF LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN
GEORGIA...AS A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SUBSTANTIVE
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON... AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA
AND WESTERN GEORGIA. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES COULD INCREASE...BOTH WITHIN THE LINE...AND IN A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD
OF IT.

..KERR/MEAD.. 06/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30248718 31178694 32608670 33098600 33188463 32388376
31098440 29418566 28838698 29238775 30248718

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.