MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1114

ACUS11 KWNS 102011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102010
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-102115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA...SERN NEB...FAR NWRN MO...FAR NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 102010Z - 102115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INITIATION OF TSTMS IS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE ALONG A SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. PRIMARY RISKS OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...AND A WW MAY BE NECESSARY BY 22Z.

DISCUSSION...20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ARCING SWWD AND
THEN WSWWD ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS...ADVANCING TOWARDS THE SE. WATER
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH INFLUENCE OF LEADING EDGE OF FORCED ASCENT/MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH A HOT/WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN ANY REMAINING CINH AND
LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN IA.

VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /APPROACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS
SWRN IA/ COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD FAVOR CLUSTERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN
IA...WHILE FARTHER S...WEAKER FORCED ASCENT AND VEERING MIDLEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE STORMS OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS INITIALLY. A
THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...OWING TO STRONG BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND A HOT/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL EXIST. LARGE HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 41949664 43369631 43499540 43449432 42689387 40559406
39839444 39449479 39449607 40239661 40849668 41949664

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