MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1138

ACUS11 KWNS 121533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121532
TXZ000-OKZ000-121700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 121532Z - 121700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SPREADING SEWD FROM PORTIONS OF NWRN TX MAY POSE AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AHEAD OF THIS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NWRN TX AND SWRN OK HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH RECENT INCREASE IN
LIGHTNING AND REFLECTIVITY OCCURRING WITH THE STORM MOVING THROUGH
BAYLOR COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS ERN NM AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPED EWD
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS DEEP-LAYER
FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK ALSO APPEARS TO BE
PLAYING A ROLE IN SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION. AIR PARCEL TRAJECTORIES
FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY ORIGINATE IN A VERY UNSTABLE REGIME PARTIALLY
REPRESENTED BY MAF MORNING SOUNDING. WHILE STRONG CAPPING MAY BE
INHIBITING MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGIME THIS MORNING...SOME
GUIDANCE SUCH AS NSSL WRF-ARW...APPEAR TO MAINTAIN A CLUSTER OF
STORMS IN THE FORM OF A SMALL MCS MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE DAY. IF
THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NCNTRL TX. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THREATS
COULD THEREFORE EVOLVE AND WARRANT A WATCH ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER NORTH INTO OK...LESS INSTABILITY BUT
WEAKER INHIBITION AND MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THESE LIMITATIONS MAY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33619896 33979876 34549825 34709731 34199646 33489599
32899583 32619594 32349636 32279731 32579951 33139953
33619896

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