MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1150

ACUS11 KWNS 131852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131851
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-131945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM / SERN CO / TX AND OK PNHDLS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131851Z - 131945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO WITHIN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
DEEPENING CUMULUS CONVECTION ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD NOTED ALONG THE TX/NM
BORDER NE TCC. THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG.

CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND GROWING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER
ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY 21-22Z IN EITHER OR BOTH AREAS
MENTIONED ABOVE. AREA VAD/PROFILER DATA AND MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW /I.E. 15-20 KT
AT 500 MB/ WILL LIMIT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDE TO 30 KT OR LESS.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 06/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35770569 36300548 36880532 37510506 37730481 38020427
38300383 38400332 38390280 38020236 37370222 35270192
34800204 34320262 34050340 34350436 35190545 35770569

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