MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1151

ACUS11 KWNS 131904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131904
TXZ000-NMZ000-132000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX...SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131904Z - 132000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE AND AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...AN UPSTREAM UPPER IMPULSE POSITIONED OVER WRN AZ /PER
RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP/ IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING EWD...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF INFERRED ASCENT SPREADING INTO SRN NM. VWP DATA
FROM HDX ALSO INDICATES MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW MAY BE ENHANCED /30-40 KTS
ABOVE 5 KM AGL/ IN THE VICINITY OF THIS IMPULSE...AND IS STRONGER
THAN MOST NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE. MEANWHILE...STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER FAR W TX AND SERN NM DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF SCT MIDLEVEL CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS POCKETS OF
TOWERING CU OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN /INCLUDING THE
SACRAMENTO...GUADALUPE...AND DAVIS MTNS/...AND WITH CONTINUED
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER IMPULSE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE AIDED BY 30 KTS OF 0-1
KM SSELY FLOW /PER MAF VWP/ INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN NM.
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE...VEERING WIND
PROFILES...AND MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
GUSTS.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 29950232 29270333 29360399 30590485 31990535 33160559
33800553 34090476 34200383 33660305 29950232

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