MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1153

ACUS11 KWNS 132218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132217
TXZ000-132315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 132217Z - 132315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF NRN TX MAY POSE
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ATTM...COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV MOVING EWD ALONG THE RED
RIVER THIS EVENING...WITH ENHANCED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NOTED ALONG
ITS SRN PERIPHERY IN AND AROUND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO AREA. IN
ADDITION...KFWS NEXRAD AT 2145Z SHOWS AN ISOLATED STORM HAS
INITIATED N OF DALLAS. ACARS SOUNDING SAMPLING THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING CAP...STRONG INSTABILITY AND
STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND SHEAR...FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
FAVOR A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 06/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 32789539 31939493 31589553 31759742 32269860 32819895
33309811 33259682 32789539

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