ACUS11 KWNS 151842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151841
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-151945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E TX...ARKLATEX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151841Z - 151945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS E
TX EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS WITH
SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/BRIEF NATURE OF THREAT
PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...REMNANT MCV AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
EARLY MORNING/ONGOING CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO ACT AS THE IMPETUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS ALREADY UNCAPPED WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...RAP MODEL DEPICTED DEWPOINT
VALUES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED AND THE MLCAPE VALUES
ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG /AS DEPICTED BY THE 17Z RUC/.
REGARDLESS...THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...SUGGESTING MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...DCAPE VALUES AOA 1000
J/KG SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
..MOSIER/HART.. 06/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 32709354 32259349 31409376 31089429 30979471 30959562
31019613 31419627 31879595 32639548 33319554 33739549
34239511 34139411 32709354
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