MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1222

ACUS11 KWNS 191805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191805
TXZ000-191900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191805Z - 191900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
TX GULF COAST NWD INTO CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ISOLATED/LOW
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SE/CNTRL TX. THIS AIR
MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WARM/MOIST PROFILE THROUGH A LARGE PART
OF THE TROPOSPHERE...EVIDENCED BY PWATS GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES ON
16Z DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SKINNY MLCAPE PROFILES /NORMALIZED
CAPE BELOW 0.15 PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS/. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH THE MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
/0-1 KM BULK ABOVE 15 KTS/ AND STORM MOTION ABOVE 25 KTS WITH
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN A FEW STORMS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW BUT SOME THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY...AFOREMENTIONED MOIST PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAIN
RATES WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
QUICK STORM MOTION. ISOLATED/LOW SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/HART.. 06/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 32629708 33039615 32759498 32249452 31349480 30689513
30169562 29579647 29639757 30849783 32159774 32629708

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