MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1237

ACUS11 KWNS 211932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211931
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-212030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MI...NE/CNTRL IND...FAR NW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211931Z - 212030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MI...NE/CNTRL IND AND FAR NW OH. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. ISOLATED/BRIEF NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/WRN OHIO
VALLEY. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM
BAX SWWD TO LAF. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED
BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60.
THIS WARM...MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500-1000 J/KG. THIS MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STORM ORGANIZATION AND A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND/HAIL. ONE FACTOR WORKING AGAINST SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT /AROUND 8 DEG C AT 700 MB BASED ON THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP CAPE PROFILES THIN
AND LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED/BRIEF
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
WW.

..MOSIER/HART.. 06/21/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON 41958517 42208494 42888425 42958355 42508303 41518372
40438483 39348630 39468786 40428663 41958517

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