MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1295

ACUS11 KWNS 271926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271925
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271925Z - 272200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD
DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS. DESPITE
MODEST MID-LEVEL SWLYS AND WEAK BUOYANCY...A VERY DEEPLY-MIXED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.

DISCUSSION...A PLUME OF PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 INCH PER GPS DATA
INTERACTING WITH DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS YIELDED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL CO. ON THE FRINGE OF
MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS OF 20-30 KT...WELL SAMPLED BY PLATTEVILLE
CO PROFILER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOOSELY ORGANIZED AS IT EVOLVES
NEWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. FRONTAL SURGE
HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR ITR TO THE DEN CYCLONE. WITH ONLY
40S SURFACE DEW POINTS N OF THIS BOUNDARY AND HOT TEMPERATURES SW OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE IMMENSE AVERAGING
FROM 50-70 DEG F. THIS VERY DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SPORADIC MICROBURSTS...WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY
AND MODEST CLOUD BEARING-SHEAR MITIGATING SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 06/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40470573 40960573 41350554 41690497 41890421 41690365
41540322 41140274 40730247 40090202 39450168 39160186
39030220 38960279 38680382 38420448 38500519 38960536
39390542 40470573

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