ACUS11 KWNS 291944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291943
IAZ000-292215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291943Z - 292215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY DEVELOP WITH TSTMS INVOF OF
AN MCV MOVING EWD FROM SWRN IA. THIS THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A
SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...REMNANT MCV HAS NOW REACHED SWRN IA WITH A RECENT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THIS APPROACHING THE DES MOINES
METRO AREA. SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY IN S-CNTRL/SERN IA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S.
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS IS YIELDING MODERATE
BUOYANCY. ALTHOUGH 0-3 KM WINDS ARE WEAK PER SLATER IA PROFILER...A
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV
SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR PRIMARILY MULTICELL
TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 06/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41519467 41939439 42519344 42669187 42559095 42289083
41279134 40859161 40679206 40789390 41019432 41519467
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