WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 369

WWUS20 KWNS 102004
SEL9
SPC WW 102004
MNZ000-110300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MINNESOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FAIRMONT MINNESOTA TO 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 368...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ATTENDANT TO DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVERSPREADS DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MODIFICATION OF 18Z
MPX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP
HAS BECOME QUITE WEAK WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED
WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE...SETUP WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND LINE SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21030.


...MEAD

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