DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230103
SWODY1
SPC AC 230100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN MN INTO EXTREME NWRN
WI...

...NERN SD...SERN ND THROUGH NRN MN...

STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NRN SD...SERN ND INTO
NWRN MN PERSIST THIS EVENING. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS REMAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. HOWEVER...THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY. THE 00Z RAOB DATA FROM ABERDEEN AND MINNEAPOLIS INDICATE
AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB WHERE BASE OF EML HAS OVERSPREAD WARM
SECTOR. LIMITED DEEP LAYER FORCING SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED AS DIABATIC WARMING DIMINISHES. THUS A
CONTINUED OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR A SHORT TERM THREAT THIS EVENING SINCE A FEW STORMS
MIGHT REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.

...HIGH PLAINS OF WRN SD...AND NWRN NEB...

A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM WRN NEB INTO WRN SD. THESE STORMS POSE A MODEST THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS THROUGH 03Z BUT SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.


...SRN MN THROUGH GREAT LAKES AREA...

A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ATTENDING STRENGTHENING LLJ. A MODEST THREAT MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 07/23/2012

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