DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231732
SWODY2
SPC AC 231730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY WED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...FORCING A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUE AFTERNOON. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EXTEND TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER...AS
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WA/BC BORDER MOVES NEWD
ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT MID-LEVEL NWLYS AOA 30 KT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS ON TUE. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE
ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DOWNSTREAM...REMNANTS
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE DAY...WHILE ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 100 F IN PARTS OF VA/NC. THIS
STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH INCREASING 850-500 MB NWLYS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND.

...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG THE
WRN FRINGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT TUE AFTERNOON CENTERED ACROSS THE WRN
DAKOTAS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
PRIMARILY PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL/WIND. A STRENGTHENING LLJ TUE
EVENING/NIGHT MAY YIELD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS PROPAGATING ALONG
THE EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING IN SD TO MN.

...NEW ENGLAND COAST...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN FRONTAL TIMING AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF IT. THUS...THE SEVERE RISK IS CONDITIONAL
ON WHETHER TSTMS CAN FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD THE SLOWER TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE INDEED OCCUR.

..GRAMS.. 07/23/2012

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