MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1338

ACUS11 KWNS 011926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011925
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-012100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444...

VALID 011925Z - 012100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT PERSISTS AND IS
DEVELOPING N/EWD OF WW 444 IN MA/RI. ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR
SPATIALLY TO WARRANT A NEW WW...IT COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED.

DISCUSSION...GREATEST CLUSTERING OF TSTMS HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW OF THESE HAVE
EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTER AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S IN MOST OF MA OUTSIDE OF CAPE COD SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY
REMAIN SEVERE AS IT SHIFTS JUST N/E OF WW 444. FARTHER SW...TSTMS
HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE S OF NERN PA THUS FAR ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH. BUT WITH THE CU FIELD PERSISTING...CONTINUED HEATING WITH
MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS
BY EARLY EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 07/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 42437236 42447163 42437099 41857038 41607048 40957202
40567325 40167426 40137545 40217595 40497629 40757613
41307524 42237316 42437236

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