Thursday, July 5, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1407

ACUS11 KWNS 051927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051927
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-052100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LOWER MI...NW OH AND NE IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051927Z - 052100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE LOWER MI...NW OH AND
NE IND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...THE THREATS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW
ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SERN LOWER MI
LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE NEAR AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED AROUND
1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES LIKELY EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM
FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS FAR NW OH AND NE
IND. THIS ALONG WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN ORGANIZE
INTO A LINE. THIS MAY DEPEND UPON WHETHER THE ACTIVITY CAN ACCESS
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND
DAMAGE THREAT...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT
CORES.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 42518349 42558415 42378464 42058504 41688525 41368537
40798531 40468494 40318465 40278418 40328383 40448343
40778307 41158290 41638281 42138290 42518349

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