ACUS11 KWNS 061937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061936
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-062100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...NWRN AL...WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061936Z - 062100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF ERN AR...NRN MS...NWRN AL...AND WRN TN ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING STORM ORGANIZATION AND
ENHANCED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AT 1930Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL AND WRN TN MOVING SWWD AT AROUND 20 KT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...AND
SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
NOT STRONG...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY MERGE
AND GROW UPSCALE AS THEY PROPAGATE SWWD INTO THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN ENHANCED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP...AND COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..GARNER/WEISS.. 07/06/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 35008735 33408866 33759081 35549097 36618768 35008735
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