ACUS11 KWNS 072143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072143
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-072245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CDT SAT JUL 07 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...ERN MD...DE...NJ...SERN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 072143Z - 072245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PA MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS WITH A WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
DISCUSSION...STORMS PERSIST OVER CNTRL AND ERN PA...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING IN A SELY DIRECTION WITH MEAN NWLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES FROM
ERN PA INTO NJ AND NY...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR STORM TO REGENERATE
AND/OR GAIN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 07/07/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 40397875 40727732 40967606 41107483 41127401 41017355
40787331 40547336 40477389 40097396 39587409 38997468
38917484 39097575 39367688 39557790 39917861 40147881
40397875
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