MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1467

ACUS11 KWNS 142144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142144
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-142245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AZ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SERN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 142144Z - 142245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
AZ...SERN CA...AND THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY WITH A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND ISOLATED...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A
WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
AZ...SERN CA...AND THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSES THE BASAL PORTION OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN AZ/SERN CA HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID-90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THESE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST MONSOONAL AIR MASS HAVE
RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS OVER WRN AZ /LOWER VALUES FARTHER
W/...SUGGEST ONLY MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA...SHEAR WILL
LIKELY INCREASE...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS RESULTANT
FROM PRECIPITATION LOADING ATOP A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /DCAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM/.
ADDITIONALLY...PWATS GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES WILL SUPPORT RAIN
RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH/HOUR WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AS
CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND ISOLATED...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A
WW.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 07/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

LAT...LON 32691497 32601605 33171606 33681609 34191605 34531590
35131560 35521524 35881485 36161388 35301287 34001245
32631150 31481139 32251372 32691497

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