MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1471

ACUS11 KWNS 152101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152100
NDZ000-152230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NWRN THROUGH N CNTRL NORTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152100Z - 152230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH AN 18Z SOUNDING FROM BISMARCK IS SUGGESTIVE OF
SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DUE TO CAPPING ISSUES...RELATIVELY
LOW MOISTURE VALUES AND MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE...OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL DATA INDICATE POTENTIALLY GREATER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AND IT APPEARS
THAT A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 22-23Z...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
NEAR/NORTH THROUGH EAST OF MINOT. IF THIS OCCURS... VERTICAL SHEAR
BENEATH 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SIZABLE... AND SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
TORNADIC POTENTIAL...BUT THIS THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY SIZABLE
SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. LOCALLY STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT...WITH LARGE
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

..KERR/CARBIN.. 07/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48510275 48910256 48850019 48579941 48119936 47650010
47550097 47830224 48510275

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